<\/p>\n
\u00c1 \u00e1runum fyrir hrun mynda\u00f0ist einfaldlega b\u00f3la sem sprakk og n\u00fa sitjum vi\u00f0 uppi me\u00f0 breytta heimsmynd.\u00a0F\u00f3lki fannst \u00e1rin fyrir hrun einkennast af vels\u00e6ld og vill sem fyrst komast aftur til \u00feess raunveruleika.<\/p>\n
\u00cdslenskt efnahagsl\u00edf gekk \u00feokkalega \u00e1ri\u00f0 2001. \u00dea\u00f0 var a\u00f0 koma \u00fat \u00far skammvinnri l\u00e6g\u00f0, skuldsetning var skapleg og undirliggjandi framlei\u00f0sla r\u00falla\u00f0i \u00e1g\u00e6tlega \u00e1fram. Vextir Se\u00f0labanka \u00cdslands voru nokku\u00f0 h\u00e1ir en fj\u00e1rm\u00f6gnun atvinnul\u00edfsins f\u00f3r a\u00f0 hluta til fram \u00ed erlendri mynt, einkum s\u00e1 hluti sem snerti \u00fatflutnings- og\/e\u00f0a samkeppnisgreinar.<\/p>\n
\u00deetta var l\u00edti\u00f0 og s\u00e6tt hagkerfi, sem var ekki a\u00f0 gera neinar s\u00e9rstakar r\u00f3sir, en virtist \u00fe\u00f3 \u00feess umkomi\u00f0 a\u00f0 sj\u00e1 \u00feegnum s\u00ednum fyrir \u00e1g\u00e6tu l\u00edfi til framt\u00ed\u00f0ar.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 sem ranns\u00f3knarnefnd Al\u00feingis hef\u00f0i \u00e1tt a\u00f0 sko\u00f0a er hvernig t\u00f3kst \u00e1 sj\u00f6 \u00e1rum a\u00f0 komast \u00far \u00feessari st\u00f6\u00f0u yfir \u00ed \u00fe\u00e1 st\u00f6\u00f0u a\u00f0 einstaklingar, fyrirt\u00e6ki og sveitarf\u00e9l\u00f6g rambi \u00e1 barmi gjald\u00ferots og eigi s\u00e9r vart vi\u00f0reisnar von. Af hverju bankarnir ur\u00f0u gjald\u00ferota er ekki a\u00f0alatri\u00f0i\u00f0 \u00ed st\u00f3ra samhenginu.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er margendurteki\u00f0 \u00feema \u00ed peningas\u00f6gu mannsins a\u00f0 til ver\u00f0a b\u00f3lur \u00fear sem eignaver\u00f0 missir alla tengingu vi\u00f0 undirliggjandi ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti. S\u00fa fyrsta sem hlaut heimsfr\u00e6g\u00f0 \u00ed efnahagss\u00f6gu Vesturlanda snerist um t\u00falipana \u00ed Hollandi fyrir t\u00e6pu h\u00e1lfu \u00e1r\u00fe\u00fasundi og \u00fe\u00e6r hafa komi\u00f0 \u00e1 nokkurra \u00e1ratuga fresti s\u00ed\u00f0an.<\/p>\n
Upplifa m\u00e1tti afbrig\u00f0i af \u00feessu h\u00e9rlendis \u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0asta \u00e1ratug. \u00de\u00e1 \u00f3x ver\u00f0gildi\u00f0 \u00e1 kr\u00f3nunni \u00far \u00f6llu samhengi vi\u00f0 undirliggjandi ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti efnahagsl\u00edfsins.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 ger\u00f0ist af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 Se\u00f0labanki \u00cdslands h\u00f3f a\u00f0 grei\u00f0a hverjum \u00feeim sem vildi eiga \u00edslenskar kr\u00f3nur 10-15% h\u00e6rri vexti en a\u00f0rir se\u00f0labankar. \u00dear me\u00f0 h\u00f3fst F\u00edflaleikurinn. Galdurinn er a\u00f0 halda kr\u00f3nunum n\u00f3gu lengi til a\u00f0 f\u00e9fletta Se\u00f0labankann, en \u00fe\u00f3 ekki svo lengi a\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e6r ver\u00f0i ver\u00f0lausar. \u00cd leiknum \u00fearf alltaf a\u00f0 vera einhver sem er meira f\u00edfl, sem svo kaupir af \u00fe\u00e9r kr\u00f3nurnar, tekur \u00e1h\u00e6ttu lengur, finnur enn meira f\u00edfl til a\u00f0 losa sig vi\u00f0 kr\u00f3nurnar og \u00feannig koll af kolli \u00fear til b\u00f3lan brestur.<\/p>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 segir sig sj\u00e1lft a\u00f0 \u00feeir sem taka \u00fe\u00e1tt \u00ed \u00feessum leik hafa engan \u00e1huga \u00e1 a\u00f0 eiga kr\u00f3nurnar \u00ed raun og veru. Ekkert frekar en sp\u00e1kaupmenn fort\u00ed\u00f0arinnar h\u00f6f\u00f0u \u00e1huga \u00e1 t\u00falipanalaukum \u00fat af fyrir sig.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n En Se\u00f0labanki \u00cdslands vir\u00f0ist hafa haldi\u00f0 a\u00f0 einhver vildi \u00ed alv\u00f6ru eiga kr\u00f3nur og sumir vir\u00f0ast halda \u00fea\u00f0 enn\u00fe\u00e1. En eins og vi\u00f0 vitum vill enginn taka vi\u00f0 kr\u00f3nunum okkar \u00ed dag. Leikurinn er b\u00fainn.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 undarlega er a\u00f0 Se\u00f0labankinn vir\u00f0ist enn vera a\u00f0 spila leikinn, a\u00f0 minnsta kosti mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 vaxtastefnu bankans. \u00dea\u00f0 er bara enginn til a\u00f0 spila vi\u00f0 nema innlent atvinnul\u00edf sem hefur ekki efni \u00e1 a\u00f0 taka \u00fe\u00e1tt.<\/p>\n Se\u00f0labankinn rak mestallan s\u00ed\u00f0asta \u00e1ratug vaxtastefnu sem var ekki \u00ed neinu samr\u00e6mi vi\u00f0 raunveruleikann. Hann vir\u00f0ist hafa haft \u00fe\u00e1 ranghugmynd a\u00f0 me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 stj\u00f3rna v\u00f6xtum \u00e1 Matador-peningum g\u00e6ti hann st\u00fdrt efnahagsstarfseminni. Vandinn var s\u00e1 a\u00f0 enginn t\u00f3k mark \u00e1 honum.<\/p>\n Se\u00f0labankinn l\u00fdsti \u00fev\u00ed yfir a\u00f0 h\u00e6gja yr\u00f0i \u00e1 innlendu efnahagsl\u00edfi. Um \u00e1rabil rak hann \u00fev\u00ed vaxtastefnu sem ekkert atvinnul\u00edf gat sta\u00f0i\u00f0 undir. Hann hrakti \u00fev\u00ed efnahagsl\u00edfi\u00f0 \u00far kr\u00f3nu \u00ed erlenda mynt, fyrst atvinnul\u00edfi\u00f0 og svo einstaklinga.<\/span><\/p>\n Vaxtastefna Se\u00f0labankans haf\u00f0i \u00feannig ekki einungis \u00feau \u00e1hrif a\u00f0 bankinn var f\u00e9flettur af sp\u00e1kaupm\u00f6nnum, heldur neyddi hann einnig \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0ina til a\u00f0 taka \u00e1 sig gjaldeyris\u00e1h\u00e6ttu sem \u00e1 endanum var\u00f0 henni a\u00f0 falli.<\/p>\n Honum t\u00f3kst ekki einungis a\u00f0 h\u00e6gja \u00e1 efnahagsstarfseminni, heldur n\u00e1nast st\u00f6\u00f0va hana a\u00f0 fullu.<\/p>\n \u00c1 me\u00f0an Se\u00f0labankinn \u00fejarma\u00f0i jafnt og \u00fe\u00e9tt a\u00f0 atvinnul\u00edfinu me\u00f0 vaxtastefnu sinni var hann jafnframt helsti hvati \u00feenslunnar sem hann \u00fe\u00f3ttist vera a\u00f0 st\u00f6\u00f0va. \u00deannig breytti hann til d\u00e6mis reglum um bindiskyldu \u00e1ri\u00f0 2004 sem j\u00f3k \u00fatl\u00e1nagetu bankanna um 800 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na og var forsenda s\u00f3knar \u00feeirra \u00e1 h\u00fasn\u00e6\u00f0isl\u00e1namarka\u00f0. Sem aftur leiddi til breytinga \u00e1 \u00cdb\u00fa\u00f0al\u00e1nasj\u00f3\u00f0i svo hann g\u00e6ti fari\u00f0 \u00e1 fulla fer\u00f0 \u00ed kapphlaup vi\u00f0 bankana og l\u00e1na\u00f0 enn meira.<\/p>\n \u00deegar gjaldmi\u00f0ill styrkist \u00fe\u00e1 eykst kaupm\u00e1ttur \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0arinnar sem notar hann. \u00deegar gjaldmi\u00f0ill styrkist miki\u00f0 vir\u00f0ast eignir heima fyrir vera mikils vir\u00f0i samanbori\u00f0 vi\u00f0 eignir annars sta\u00f0ar. F\u00f3lki finnst \u00fea\u00f0 vera r\u00edkt. \u00dea\u00f0 eykur neyslu og byggir st\u00e6rri h\u00fas. Hagkerfi\u00f0 st\u00e6kkar. Fyrirt\u00e6ki b\u00e6ta vi\u00f0 sig. J\u00e1kv\u00e6\u00f0ur hringur \u00f6rvunar fer \u00ed gang. Bjarts\u00fdni vex. Framt\u00ed\u00f0in er bj\u00f6rt og f\u00f3lk er tilb\u00fai\u00f0 a\u00f0 taka \u00e1h\u00e6ttu til auka s\u00edn t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri.<\/p>\n \u00deetta eru g\u00f3\u00f0ar fr\u00e9ttir og \u00fea\u00f0 sem efnahagsstj\u00f3rnun gengur almennt \u00fat \u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n Vandinn felst \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed \u00feegar styrkingin \u00e1 gjaldmi\u00f0linum er b\u00f3la. \u00deegar h\u00fan stafar af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 veri\u00f0 er a\u00f0 skemmta s\u00e9r \u00ed leikjum, en ekki af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 undirliggjandi ver\u00f0m\u00e6task\u00f6pun s\u00e9 a\u00f0 aukast. Gengi myntar getur (til lengri t\u00edma) eing\u00f6ngu r\u00e1\u00f0ist af ver\u00f0m\u00e6task\u00f6puninni sem a\u00f0 baki henni er. Slitni \u00feetta samhengi myndast b\u00f3la sem fyrr e\u00f0a s\u00ed\u00f0ar hl\u00fdtur \u00f3hj\u00e1kv\u00e6milega a\u00f0 springa til a\u00f0 n\u00e1 efnahagslegu jafnv\u00e6gi.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00c1 \u00cdslandi ger\u00f0ist tvennt: Gjaldmi\u00f0ilinn styrktist vegna \u00f6rl\u00e6tis Se\u00f0labankans og Se\u00f0labankinn neyddi hagkerfi\u00f0 til a\u00f0 n\u00e1 s\u00e9r \u00ed fj\u00e1rm\u00f6gnun erlendis \u00fear sem rekin var vaxtastefna sem engin l\u00f6gleg atvinnustarfsemi \u00fer\u00edfst \u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00deess vegna skulda \u00cdslendingar \u00f3fyrirsj\u00e1anlegar upph\u00e6\u00f0ir \u00ed erlendri mynt.<\/p>\n G\u00f6mlu bankarnir voru settir \u00ed \u00ferot sem ger\u00f0i \u00fea\u00f0 m\u00f6gulegt a\u00f0 afskrifa gr\u00ed\u00f0arlega miklar skuldir \u00ed erlendri mynt. Hins vegar eru skuldir hins opinbera og orkufyrirt\u00e6kjanna enn gr\u00ed\u00f0arlegar. Allt anna\u00f0 en uppstokkun hj\u00e1 \u00feeim er \u00f3hugsandi, \u00feessar erlendu skuldir \u00fearf a\u00f0 grei\u00f0a \u00ed erlendri mynt. \u00a0<\/p>\n Menn misstu af g\u00f3\u00f0u t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri til a\u00f0 \u00feurrka \u00fat 350 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na skuldir af atvinnul\u00edfinu me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0n\u00fdta kv\u00f3tann eftir hruni\u00f0 og taka allan sj\u00e1var\u00fatveginn \u00ed gegnum gjald\u00ferot \u00ed bo\u00f0i erlendra banka. T\u00e6kif\u00e6ri\u00f0 til \u00feess st\u00f3\u00f0 til bo\u00f0a \u00ed um \u00fea\u00f0 bil \u00e1r eftir hrun, en \u00fea\u00f0 er ekki lengur h\u00e6gt \u00fear sem b\u00fai\u00f0 er a\u00f0 festa samninga \u00e1 milli n\u00fdju og g\u00f6mlu bankanna.<\/span><\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 vei\u00f0um fisk, einkum \u00feorsk. Erum ekkert s\u00e9rstaklega g\u00f3\u00f0 \u00ed \u00fev\u00ed, \u00fev\u00ed stundum br\u00e6\u00f0um vi\u00f0 matfisk og stundum tekst okkur a\u00f0 fara illa me\u00f0 hr\u00e1efni\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 vei\u00f0um. Svo er okkur fyrirmuna\u00f0 a\u00f0 ala upp fisk, \u00f3l\u00edkt \u00f6llum gr\u00f6nnum okkar. En vi\u00f0 f\u00e1um erlendan gjaldeyri fyrir stre\u00f0i\u00f0.<\/span><\/p>\n Allan \u00feennan gjaldeyri, og reyndar r\u00famlega til, \u00feurfum vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 nota til a\u00f0 borga skuldir \u00ed \u00fatl\u00f6ndum. Hann fer \u00fev\u00ed til d\u00e6mis ekki \u00ed a\u00f0 kaupa til landsins framlei\u00f0slut\u00e6ki sem myndu auka ver\u00f0m\u00e6task\u00f6punina.\u00a0<\/p>\n Venjulega myndu \u00fatflutningsfyrirt\u00e6kin setja gjaldeyrinn sinn \u00ed bankann, kannski kaupa sm\u00e1 Matador-kr\u00f3nur til a\u00f0 borga laun og \u00feess h\u00e1ttar. Bankinn myndi svo l\u00e1na gjaldeyrinn til einhvers st\u00f3rhuga fyrirt\u00e6kis sem \u00e6tlar a\u00f0 kaupa n\u00fdja framlei\u00f0slul\u00ednu til a\u00f0 skapa ver\u00f0m\u00e6ti og st\u00f6rf. \u00deegar \u00fea\u00f0 byrjar a\u00f0 ganga vel borgar \u00fea\u00f0 l\u00e1ni\u00f0 til baka og gjaldeyrinn fer annan hring \u00ed hagkerfinu, \u00f6llum til hagsb\u00f3ta.<\/p>\n En n\u00fana er \u00feessi hringfer\u00f0 ekki m\u00f6guleg \u00fev\u00ed \u00feegar \u00fatger\u00f0arfyrirt\u00e6ki\u00f0 setur gjaldeyrinn sinn \u00ed bankann \u00fearf bankinn a\u00f0 senda gjaldeyrinn raklei\u00f0is \u00fat aftur til a\u00f0 borga ni\u00f0ur skuldir. \u00dev\u00ed er ekki h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rmagna alv\u00f6ru fj\u00e1rfestingu \u00ed \u00edslensku atvinnul\u00edfi.<\/p>\n \u00datlendingar eru ekki f\u00edfl. Ekki svona almennt. \u00deegar \u00feeir horfa \u00e1 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0 sem setti sj\u00e1lfa sig \u00e1 hausinn \u00e1 sj\u00f6 \u00e1rum, og vir\u00f0ist l\u00edti\u00f0 hafa l\u00e6rt \u00e1 lei\u00f0inni, \u00fe\u00e1 eru \u00feeir ekki tilb\u00fanir a\u00f0 l\u00e1ta okkur hafa meiri peninga.\u00a0<\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 erum enn me\u00f0 se\u00f0labanka sem er \u00ed Matador. Vi\u00f0 erum me\u00f0 stj\u00f3rnv\u00f6ld sem eru tortryggin, og beinl\u00ednis \u00f3vinveitt, \u00feessum f\u00e1u \u00fatlendingum sem sj\u00e1 t\u00e6kif\u00e6ri h\u00e9rna.<\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 erum me\u00f0 l\u00f6ggjafar\u00feing sem setur l\u00f6g \u00fat \u00ed lofti\u00f0, helst afturvirk, svo tryggt s\u00e9 a\u00f0 enginn geti \u00e1tta\u00f0 sig \u00e1 leikreglunum.<\/p>\n \u00de\u00e1 er b\u00fai\u00f0 a\u00f0 tryggja me\u00f0 gjaldeyrish\u00f6ftunum a\u00f0 allt \u00fea\u00f0 f\u00e9 sem \u00fatlendingar sitja me\u00f0 fastir \u00e1 \u00cdslandi fari ekki til atvinnul\u00edfsins. Heldur eing\u00f6ngu til fj\u00e1rm\u00f6gnunar \u00e1 r\u00edkinu.<\/p>\n Au\u00f0vita\u00f0 nenna \u00fatlendingar ekki a\u00f0 standa \u00ed svona bulli.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er n\u00f3g af fj\u00e1rfestingat\u00e6kif\u00e6rum annarssta\u00f0ar. \u00dear sem ekki er spila\u00f0 Matador og yfirv\u00f6ld fagna fj\u00e1rfestingu \u00ed atvinnul\u00edfi. Eins og til d\u00e6mis alls sta\u00f0ar annarssta\u00f0ar \u00ed heiminum. Meira a\u00f0 segja \u00e1 K\u00fabu. Kannski ekki \u00fe\u00f3 \u00ed Venes\u00faela sem stendur.<\/p>\n Me\u00f0an enginn vill l\u00e1ta okkur hafa alv\u00f6ru peninga \u00fe\u00e1 getum vi\u00f0 ekki anna\u00f0 en borga\u00f0 ni\u00f0ur l\u00e1nin okkar me\u00f0 aurunum sem vi\u00f0 f\u00e1um fyrir \u00feorskinn. Ekki fj\u00e1rfestum vi\u00f0 \u00e1 me\u00f0an. E\u00f0a nokkur annar.<\/p>\n \u00datlendingar eru ekki f\u00edfl. Ekki svona almennt. \u00deegar \u00feeir horfa \u00e1 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0 sem setti sj\u00e1lfa sig \u00e1 hausinn \u00e1 sj\u00f6 \u00e1rum, og vir\u00f0ist l\u00edti\u00f0 hafa l\u00e6rt \u00e1 lei\u00f0inni, \u00fe\u00e1 eru \u00feeir ekki tilb\u00fanir a\u00f0 l\u00e1ta okkur hafa meiri peninga. Nema fyrir r\u00e9tt ver\u00f0.<\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 eigum eitt \u00e1\u00fereifanlegt d\u00e6mi sem er fj\u00e1rm\u00f6gnun Landsvirkjunar \u00ed september 2010. Landsvirkjun er \u00fea\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6ki sem stendur einna best \u00ed \u00feessu samhengi, a\u00f0 sagt er. Hefur haldi\u00f0 g\u00f3\u00f0um samskiptum vi\u00f0 s\u00edna erlendu banka \u00ed gegnum hruni\u00f0. B\u00fdr yfir miklum au\u00f0lindum, hefur trygga orkus\u00f6lusamninga sem a\u00f0 miklu leyti eru bundnir erlendri mynt. Er fyrsti \u00edslenski a\u00f0ilinn sem f\u00e6r l\u00e1n hj\u00e1 \u00fatlendingum eftir hrun.<\/p>\n \u00deeir fengu fj\u00e1rh\u00e6\u00f0ir sem duga \u00feeim \u00ed nokkra m\u00e1nu\u00f0i, en hr\u00f6kkva skammt upp \u00ed skuldafjalli\u00f0 sem \u00fearf a\u00f0 endurfj\u00e1rmagna \u00e1 n\u00e6stu 2-3 \u00e1rum.<\/p>\n Kj\u00f6rin voru um \u00fea\u00f0 bil 5% ofan \u00e1 grunnvexti. A\u00f0 sagt var. \u00dea\u00f0 gleymdist hins vegar a\u00f0 greina fr\u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed svo vel v\u00e6ri a\u00f0 skuldabr\u00e9fin voru seld me\u00f0 aff\u00f6llum. Seld \u00e1 0,97 \u00ed sta\u00f0 1,00. Sem mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 4 \u00e1ra l\u00edft\u00edma er 0,75% \u00e1lag \u00ed vi\u00f0b\u00f3t.<\/p>\n Sem sagt, besti \u00edslenski l\u00e1ntakinn f\u00e9kk l\u00e1n me\u00f0 5,75% \u00e1lagi \u00e1 grunnkj\u00f6r.\u00a0<\/p>\n N\u00fdju bankarnir fengu l\u00e1na\u00f0 me\u00f0 3% \u00e1lagi fr\u00e1 g\u00f6mlu b\u00f6nkunum og \u00feurfa \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 l\u00e1na \u00fea\u00f0 f\u00e9 \u00fat mi\u00f0a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 minnsta kosti 4% \u00e1lag. Atvinnul\u00edfi\u00f0 stendur ekki undir \u00fev\u00ed. \u00dea\u00f0an af s\u00ed\u00f0ur 5,75% \u00e1lagi.<\/p>\n \u00cdsland b\u00fdr yfir \u00ferennu sem \u00fatlendingar g\u00e6tu vilja\u00f0 fj\u00e1rfesta \u00ed: Orku, fiski og vatni.<\/p>\n Vi\u00f0 erum me\u00f0 l\u00f6g sem tryggja a\u00f0 \u00feeir geti ekki fj\u00e1rfest \u00ed fiski. En vi\u00f0 erum me\u00f0 einkaframtaki\u00f0 \u00fearna \u00e1 fullu og rekstur \u00ed greininni gengur nokku\u00f0 vel. H\u00fan er bara of skuldsett \u00fear sem of margir f\u00f3ru a\u00f0 spila Matador vi\u00f0 Se\u00f0labankann og ur\u00f0u s\u00ed\u00f0asta f\u00edfli\u00f0.<\/p>\n Vatni\u00f0 er of \u00e1h\u00e6ttusamt enn\u00fe\u00e1 \u00feannig a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 f\u00e1um \u00ed fri\u00f0i a\u00f0 tapa st\u00f3rf\u00e9 \u00fear. Kannski rofar til innan skamms me\u00f0 vatni\u00f0, \u00fea\u00f0 \u00e6tti bara a\u00f0 vera spurning um t\u00edma.<\/p>\n Til skamms t\u00edma vorum vi\u00f0 me\u00f0 l\u00f6g sem b\u00f6nnu\u00f0u \u00f6llum nema opinberum a\u00f0ilum a\u00f0 n\u00fdta orkulindirnar. Hvernig gekk \u00fea\u00f0?<\/p>\n Ef sko\u00f0a\u00f0ir eru reikningar orkufyrirt\u00e6kja \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum sem skr\u00e1\u00f0 eru \u00e1 marka\u00f0 (sem \u00feau n\u00e1nast \u00f6ll eru) kemur \u00ed lj\u00f3s a\u00f0 skuldir eru a\u00f0 jafna\u00f0i 6,3 sinnum sj\u00f3\u00f0streymi (EBIT). \u00dea\u00f0 er h\u00e1tt hlutfall s\u00e9 horft til atvinnul\u00edfsins \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum almennt, en ekki \u00f3e\u00f0lilegt \u00fear sem orkuframlei\u00f0sla er mj\u00f6g fj\u00e1rmagnsfrekur i\u00f0na\u00f0ur sem krefst mikilla fj\u00e1rfestinga \u00ed upphafi, en rekstrarkostna\u00f0ur er s\u00ed\u00f0an l\u00e1gur. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fev\u00ed e\u00f0lilegt a\u00f0 vaxtagrei\u00f0slur s\u00e9u st\u00f3r hluti \u00fatgjalda.<\/p>\n Margfaldari upp \u00e1 6,3 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 \u00feau geta sta\u00f0i\u00f0 undir vaxtastigi \u00e1 heildarfj\u00e1rmagn sem er 15,8%. N\u00fa eru vextir \u00ed Bandar\u00edkjunum langtum l\u00e6gri \u00feannig a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er \u00e1g\u00e6tur hagna\u00f0ur af \u00feessari starfsemi.<\/p>\n Sama hlutfall hj\u00e1 Orkuveitunni er 47. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 Orkuveitan getur sta\u00f0i\u00f0 undir 2,1% v\u00f6xtum. En engum afborgunum. N\u00fa eru vextir sem OR \u00fearf a\u00f0 grei\u00f0a talsvert h\u00e6rri en \u00fea\u00f0 og \u00fev\u00ed lj\u00f3st a\u00f0 h\u00fan \u00e1 ekki l\u00edf frekar en g\u00e6rdagurinn. Aukning afkomu um 1 milljar\u00f0 kr\u00f3na \u00e1 \u00e1ri skiptir engu andsp\u00e6nis 240 milljar\u00f0a kr\u00f3na skuldafjalli. Eini tilgangur \u00feeirrar a\u00f0ger\u00f0ar er a\u00f0 l\u00edta betur \u00fat \u00ed nau\u00f0asamningaferlinu.<\/p>\n \u00deessi hlutf\u00f6ll eru betri hj\u00e1 Landsvirkjun, en l\u00edfsmarki\u00f0 er ekki miki\u00f0. Me\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 n\u00fdta allt sitt sj\u00f3\u00f0streymi til a\u00f0 standa skil \u00e1 afborgunum, framkv\u00e6ma ekkert, g\u00e6ti h\u00fan lifa\u00f0. Landsvirkjun er \u00fev\u00ed uppvakningur \u00ed efnahagslegu tilliti.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fr\u00e1b\u00e6r \u00e1rangur yfirvalda vi\u00f0 n\u00fdtingu orkuau\u00f0lindanna. Vi\u00f0, \u00edslenska \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0in, munum aldrei sj\u00e1 kr\u00f3nu \u00ed ar\u00f0 af \u00feessari starfsemi. Ekki beinan \u00ed \u00fea\u00f0 minnsta.<\/p>\n Hvernig gekk svo \u00feegar \u00fatlendingar keyptu HS Orku \u00e1 ver\u00f0i sem enginn gat skili\u00f0 a\u00f0 vit v\u00e6ri \u00ed? Unni\u00f0 er a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 b\u00faa til afturvirk l\u00f6g til a\u00f0 vinda ofan af \u00fev\u00ed. Me\u00f0 \u00feessu er me\u00f0 \u00f6ruggum h\u00e6tti b\u00fai\u00f0 a\u00f0 sl\u00f6kkva \u00e1huga allra alv\u00f6rufyrirt\u00e6kja a\u00f0 koma til landsins.<\/p>\n \u00cd dag \u00feykir gott a\u00f0 gera hluti tortryggilega. L\u00e1ta liggja a\u00f0 einhverju. Ala \u00e1 \u00f6fund. Gle\u00f0jast yfir \u00f3f\u00f6rum annarra. S\u00fdna hugleysi \u00ed sko\u00f0unum.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 er b\u00fai\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00e1kve\u00f0a a\u00f0 starfsmenn fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lafyrirt\u00e6kja s\u00e9u vont f\u00f3lk. Illa innr\u00e6tt og ekki til nokkurra g\u00f3\u00f0ra verka n\u00fdtilegt.<\/p>\n \u00deetta er \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagslegt hara-kiri.<\/p>\n Me\u00f0 \u00feessu er veri\u00f0 a\u00f0 \u00fatiloka fr\u00e1 framlei\u00f0slut\u00e6kjum og \u00e1kvar\u00f0anat\u00f6ku bestu einstaklinga heillar kynsl\u00f3\u00f0ar. Fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lafyrirt\u00e6kin greiddu um \u00e1rabil h\u00e6stu laun nokkurra fyrirt\u00e6kja, v\u00f6ndu\u00f0u sig s\u00e9rstaklega vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 tryggja a\u00f0 \u00feau n\u00e6\u00f0u \u00f6rugglega bestu einstaklingunum sem \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0in haf\u00f0i upp \u00e1 bj\u00f3\u00f0a og f\u00e6r\u00f0u \u00feeim \u00f3metanlega reynslu. Reyndar voru fj\u00e1rm\u00e1lafyrirt\u00e6kin \u00fea\u00f0 frek \u00e1 f\u00f3lk, a\u00f0 ekki einungis t\u00f3ku \u00feau allt A f\u00f3lki\u00f0, heldur megni\u00f0 af B f\u00f3lkinu l\u00edka.<\/p>\n N\u00fa er \u00feetta f\u00f3lk \u00f3noth\u00e6ft til verka.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0in er a\u00f0 velja s\u00e9r B f\u00f3lk, og oft C f\u00f3lk, til a\u00f0 var\u00f0a lei\u00f0ina inn \u00ed n\u00fdja \u00cdsland.<\/p>\n Ef \u00e1rangur byggir \u00e1 f\u00f3lki, \u00fe\u00e1 er spurning hver \u00e1rangurinn ver\u00f0ur af \u00feessu.<\/p>\n Kreppa er \u00e1stand sem kemur og fer.<\/p>\n \u00cdsland er komi\u00f0 \u00ed st\u00f6\u00f0u sem er til lengri t\u00edma, l\u00edklega \u00e1ratuga, og mun lakari en s\u00fa sem vi\u00f0 vorum \u00ed. \u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fev\u00ed ekki kreppa heldur n\u00fdr veruleiki.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00c1st\u00e6\u00f0urnar eru nokkrar eins og raki\u00f0 hefur veri\u00f0 h\u00e9r a\u00f0 ofan, en \u00feessar helst: Miklar skuldir, h\u00e1ir vextir og hverfandi fj\u00e1rfesting \u00ed n\u00fdrri framlei\u00f0slugetu.<\/p>\n \u00deetta getur mj\u00f6g au\u00f0veldlega or\u00f0i\u00f0 v\u00edtahringur. Sko\u00f0um hva\u00f0 getur gerst n\u00e6stu m\u00e1nu\u00f0ina ef ekki er vel a\u00f0 g\u00e6tt:<\/p>\n Fr\u00e1 hruni hafa fyrirt\u00e6ki og heimili b\u00fai\u00f0 \u00ed verndu\u00f0u umhverfi \u00fear sem ekki hefur \u00feurft a\u00f0 taka \u00e1 miklum skuldum og h\u00e1um v\u00f6xtum. Almenningur hefur gengi\u00f0 \u00e1 sparna\u00f0 til a\u00f0 n\u00e1 endum saman. F\u00f3lk hefur geta\u00f0 fryst l\u00e1n og n\u00fdtt s\u00e9r \u00fdmis \u00f6nnur \u00farr\u00e6\u00f0i til a\u00f0 \u00fdta vandanum \u00e1 undan s\u00e9r. N\u00fa er \u00fev\u00ed umhverfi a\u00f0 lj\u00faka \u00fear sem r\u00e9ttar\u00f3vissa hefur minnka\u00f0 miki\u00f0 og \u00fev\u00ed h\u00e6gt a\u00f0 fara af sta\u00f0 og ganga fr\u00e1 m\u00e1lum.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 tekjur sem hafa undanfarna m\u00e1nu\u00f0i fari\u00f0 \u00ed neyslu fara \u00ed a\u00f0 borga ni\u00f0ur l\u00e1n. \u00deetta dregur \u00far neyslu og hefur hamlandi \u00e1hrif \u00e1 vaxtarm\u00f6guleika fyrirt\u00e6kja sem g\u00e6ti leitt til fj\u00f6lgunar gjald\u00ferota. \u00d3gnv\u00e6nleg atbur\u00f0arr\u00e1s fer \u00ed gang.<\/p>\n Hi\u00f0 n\u00fdja \u00cdsland er \u00fev\u00ed land sem ekki einungis hefur fari\u00f0 aftur um 15 \u00e1r \u00feegar liti\u00f0 er til l\u00edfskjara, heldur er d\u00e6mt til a\u00f0 vera \u00e1 \u00feeim sta\u00f0 \u00ed einn mannsaldur e\u00f0a svo. A\u00f0 \u00f3breyttu.<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 heilbrig\u00f0is- og sk\u00f3lakerfi\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 rekum \u00ed dag er of d\u00fdrt. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 vegakerfi\u00f0 sem vi\u00f0 h\u00f6ldum vi\u00f0 \u00ed dag er of v\u00ed\u00f0fe\u00f0mt. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 fleiri sveitarf\u00e9l\u00f6g ver\u00f0a gjald\u00ferota og fleiri bygg\u00f0ir leggjast \u00ed au\u00f0n. \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir a\u00f0 \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0f\u00e9lagi\u00f0 ver\u00f0ur f\u00e1breyttara.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00dea\u00f0 \u00fe\u00fd\u00f0ir l\u00edka a\u00f0 l\u00edfeyrissj\u00f3\u00f0ir landsmanna n\u00e1 ekki nau\u00f0synlegri \u00e1v\u00f6xtun. \u00dev\u00ed munu tekjur okkar \u00ed ellinni l\u00edka ver\u00f0a l\u00e1gar. L\u00edklega innan vi\u00f0 helmingur af \u00fev\u00ed sem yfirlitin segja okkur \u00ed dag.<\/p>\n \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0in er ekki b\u00fain a\u00f0 horfast \u00ed augu vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 h\u00fan er ekki \u00ed kreppu. N\u00fa s\u00ed\u00f0ast var Reykjav\u00edkurborg a\u00f0 hreykja s\u00e9r af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 h\u00fan v\u00e6ri a\u00f0 fl\u00fdta verkum til a\u00f0 vinna \u00e1 kreppunni. Hi\u00f0 r\u00e9tta er a\u00f0 Reykjav\u00edkurborg er enn a\u00f0 auka \u00e1 skuldsetningu inn \u00ed t\u00edmabil \u00fear sem svigr\u00fam til a\u00f0 grei\u00f0a ni\u00f0ur skuldir mun \u00ferengjast enn frekar.<\/p>\n Se\u00f0labankinn er ekki b\u00fainn a\u00f0 horfast \u00ed augu vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 efnahagsl\u00edfi\u00f0 er \u00ed kreppu. Hann heldur h\u00e9r uppi \u00ferefalt h\u00e6rri v\u00f6xtum en n\u00e1granna\u00fej\u00f3\u00f0irnar b\u00faa vi\u00f0. \u00de\u00f3 f\u00f3ru \u00fe\u00e6r ekki eins illa \u00fat \u00far hruninu og \u00cdslendingar.<\/p>\n F\u00f3lk mun \u00fev\u00ed enn um sinn halda ni\u00f0ur \u00ed s\u00e9r andanum og b\u00ed\u00f0a eftir \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 kreppunni lj\u00faki. \u00deegar \u00fea\u00f0 gerist ekki mun \u00fea\u00f0 leita svara vi\u00f0 spurningunni: Af hverju fer kreppan ekki?<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00cdslendingar tala enn um efnahagshruni\u00f0 hausti\u00f0 2008 og \u00fe\u00e1 kreppu sem fylgdi \u00ed kj\u00f6lfari\u00f0. N\u00fa, t\u00e6pum fimm \u00e1rum s\u00ed\u00f0ar, er s\u00f6kud\u00f3lganna enn leita\u00f0.\u00a0Vi\u00f0 \u00e1ttum okkur ekki \u00e1 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 h\u00e9r var\u00f0 engin kreppa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":589,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77\/revisions\/589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/workspace.cohnwolfe.is\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Se\u00f0labankinn vildi h\u00e6gja \u00e1 \u00edslensku atvinnul\u00edfi<\/h3>\n
Tv\u00ede\u00f0li Se\u00f0labankans<\/span><\/h3>\n
Hvert fara \u00fatflutningstekjurnar okkar?<\/h3>\n
\u00datlendingar vilja ekki fj\u00e1rfesta \u00e1 \u00cdslandi<\/h3>\n
\u00datlendingar vilja ekki fj\u00e1rfesta \u00e1 \u00cdslandi \u2013 nema fyrir r\u00e9tt ver\u00f0<\/h3>\n
Hva\u00f0 er r\u00e9tt ver\u00f0?<\/h3>\n
Hvernig gekk?<\/h3>\n
G\u00f3\u00f0ur \u00e1rangur af opinberu eignarhaldi orkulinda<\/h3>\n
Aumingjav\u00e6\u00f0ing \u00cdslands<\/h3>\n
\u00dea\u00f0 er engin kreppa<\/span><\/h3>\n
A\u00f0 horfast \u00ed augu vi\u00f0 l\u00edfi\u00f0<\/h3>\n